Thu Sep 01 2005 09:19 AM
tropical storm lee to the north atlantic

the basin is likely to go quite active next week. here's the rundown:
nhc tracked the convection and not the center of lee last night.. the center has become more established in the broader low in the area. it won't strengthen until convection redevelops, or maybe the center will migrate towards the convection in spite of current steering to the nw. based on location and synoptic pattern, it has zero chance of affecting land.
91L has likely been a tropical storm since late yesterday. it's maintained a t-2.0 in spite of running underneath an upper trough, and has a vigorous surface circulation that is occasionally firing convection. now it's working into the exit region of the upper low, so the prospects of further development are good. wondering how many more advisory cycles the nhc will say 'thats not a tropical cyclone' when it looks better than irene did for days. some of the models are taking it more westward than earlier, but the long term trend should be north of the islands and nw to the bermuda vicinity. i'll get to what's happening up there in a minute.
92L has some serious long term prospects if it can get organized. numerous track models are strengthening it into a hurricane and moving it into the caribbean. there may be a good deal going on to the north that will add great uncertainty to the long-range... gfs has it slowly recurving in the western atlantic for days (and doing a loop by the end of the last forecast run.. in mid-september). the system is sheared from the east, but maintaining a t-1.0 rating... has for a day now. probably won't start any real development (and most all guidance suggests it will) until it nears/passes 40w.
western atlantic and gulf... still several model depictions of what happens here, and none of them are that comforting. this situation is something i learned to look for from mr. joe b, and the models have been getting steadily more aggressive with it.. the pattern pulse. katrina's wake trough is pulling out and leaving ridging aloft to settle off the east coast, while a large upper high digs in over the eastern u.s. and synoptically forces pressure falls from the eastern gulf out to near bermuda.
various model response to this... cmc develops a storm off the east coast that is moving towards the mid atlantic... most of the other globals spin up a duet of lows.. one near bermuda and one near the bahamas. gfs has the bahamas system moving across florida and the gulf into texas.. nogaps has a similar pair but a shorter run... euro has three weaker features, but one migrating into the gulf, another moving towards the SE, and another staying quasi-stationary near bermuda. of the model runs, the eastern-most in the low pressure series appears to be interacting with 91L... lee appears to be out of the picture. the system from 92L, if it comes to pass, will be moving in to the south of this large area of unsettled weather.. how it will interact is dependent on an already uncertain complex set of features to the north.
suffice to say, we may have a substantial burst of activity, and several models are depicting a significant system entering the caribbean, and activity potentially in the gulf or near the atlantic seaboard. could be getting busy over labor day weekend/into next week.
HF 1319z01september

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