Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 01 2005 02:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Here is the afternoon discussion from the Charleston, SC, NWS office. Looks like there is a lot of uncertainty about how all this will be resolved:

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN
THE LATE TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE 00/12Z GFS INDICATING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE BAHAMAS AND TRACK
EASTWARD INTO FL AND EVENTUALLY THE GOMEX. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 00/12Z CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. ALL MODELS
INDICATING H5 TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HANDLING OF
DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAHAMAS.


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