okay, the rundown today.
lee... same as before. sheared, removed convection, drifting north. if the convection redevelops near the center it may intensify. it may also go belly up soon.
14... is a tropical storm, rated a depression. scatterometer overpass missed it, but that little core that shear peeled the convection off of last night is the kind you find with a tropical storm. i'd guess there are 40-50kt unflagged vectors on it. if it redevelops convection near the center.. perhaps it'll get the nudge up. in spite of southeasterly shear the system is maintaining 2.0 and 2.5 t-ratings... sheared systems are usually stronger than their t-ratings would suggest. globals don't show much happening with it.. most weaken it or trough it out.
92L has threat written on it. the system is getting better organized.. holding down 1.5 t-ratings and under decreasing easterly shear. the globals are developing it and the gfdl types are making a monster out of it. most track it to the northeastern caribbean or thereabouts in about five days. i'm not a big proponent of the vacillating gfdl open trough/major hurricane progs... but early indications are that it may be a hurricane at that time. big ridge settling in off the east coast around that timeframe.. if it isn't hanging on the trough ahead of it, this may become a threat further west.
have said much about the pattern-forced pressure falls that are going to happen ahead of the canadian high coming down into the mid atlantic this weekend. should be disturbed weather and low pressure trying to form along a line roughly from north of the yucatan to near bermuda. models show a variety of features developing within this region... different version of events pretty much everywhere. fairly safe to assume that a system or two will try to develop within this area, around the weekend timeframe. the most common version is a system near bermuda that goes out, with another further west.. roughly centered around florida. it may end up being a frontal or high-shear situation. whether something develops will partially depend on how quickly the trough can split and lift out.... if it lingers a shear zone with struggling activity will likely prevail.
another wave will come off africa this weekend. mediocre model interest. could be a brief subtropical-type cutoff south of the azores as well.
that about does it. it's just september... in a hyper-active year.
HF 2246z01september