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I realize I'm essentially regurgitating info available on the front page, so please feel free to delete this if it is inappropriate. However, I'm paying more and more attention to the potential for development near the Bahamas or elsewhere along the trough sometime next week - the potential for a favorable pattern for development certainly exists - and so I figured I'd post the portions of the other Florida east coast NWS discussions from this afternoon regarding this potential: From Jacksonville: LONG TERM...12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING QUASI STATIONARY CLOSED SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAHAMAS. 06Z GFS AND OTHER GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY SO AGGRESSIVE SO HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. From Melbourne: MON/FRI... BROAD TROFING OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE. THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUE AFTN. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE...GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS...WHICH THEN RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE NE FL COAST ON WED. WOULD PREFER TO SEE THIS LOW BEGIN TO FORM FIRST BEFORE BUYING INTO THE SOLUTION |