maria has a mess of weakling company tonight.
the hurricane maria is staying well out in the atlantic.. will pass around 300 miles east of bermuda i guess. nhc official only taking it up to a 2... that seems very reasonable. the storm hasn't shown much tendency to strengthen.. don't expect it'll get a whole lot stronger.. will chuck the cat 3 idea.
the invests in order are:
92L. northerly shear, no improvement from earlier. there is a broad north/south elongated turning nearing 50w, with spotty convection. the upper trough that is advancing on it from the east shouldn't be able to keep up forever, so it ought to be under modest ridging as it nears the islands. potential for slow development during the next couple of days exists, no qualm with the nhc outlook. if this thing develops it'll be a problem for somebody.
93L is more of an issue for development. the storm is drifting northward under weakening northerly shear, and should find itself under the low-shear section of the ridge tomorrow.. probably get the degree of organization to be classified. right now it's a depression with its convection removed from the center.. another of these systems not classified solely on the basis of sheared profile.
94L appears more like 92L in its level of organization... an elongated low that is part of a larger trough, with fairly persistent convection but nothing like 93L has. this system is being pattern-forced and should produce a persistent onshore flow on the east coast of florida going into the week. may not get all that deep, but will probably produce strong enough winds by gradient to merit classification. most of the globals take it northward and northeastward eventually... some have it cross florida. it may never make landfall, but if it does it'll probably be fairly weak. probably more of a pesky system than anything else.
that's pretty much it. fairly active basin, but nothing looks that threatening.
HF 0323z05september