The long range Miami RAD clearly shows a circulation spinning about 100 miles east. Convection appears to be growing and the system is stationary at the moment. Global models are still split with the 00Z NOGAPs & UKMET taking the system slowly up the east coast of FL. The FSUmm5 also does this too. All of the models that run the low pressure up the coast do so very slowly - on the order of 3 to 5 days to go from SE FL to near JAX due to a massive high pressure system centered off the east coast. The other camp of models are the 06Z GFS, 00Z GFDL, and 00Z CMC which either takes the system W-NW across the peninsula into the GOM or more northward into the north-central part of the peninsula. Climatology would argue for an up the coast scenario but with the massive high pressure system slow to give way (HPC predicting rather strong zonal flow across eastern US with a deep trough along the NW US), the high looks to simply elongate east-west. Latest HPC discussion indicates that eastern High may actually strengthen:

OVER THE ERN STATES...MASSIVE SUMMERY RIDGE WILL HOLD
SWAY...WITH THE EC BUILDING HEIGHTS ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR AS
EARLY AS DAY 5.

With the eastern High blocking any significant movement up the coast, I tend to think the latest 06Z GFS run is about right with a slow progression W-NW across the peninsula eventually into the GOM. The 00Z GFDL is a truely frightening scenario taking the storm into the GOM, strengtening it into a 120 kt hurricane and bringing that storm into NO in 5 days. For FL, perhaps a moderate tropical storm prior to landfall quickly weakening to a TD over the peninsula - lots of rain though with a slow movement.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml