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There's a new GFDL out that is showing the same track, but keeping the system weaker - only a TS or Cat 1. There is, however, run to run consistency on the track for the GFDL. GFS is now picking up a track similar to the GFDL. CMC is losing the system while it's over Florida, then picking up another low north of where it loses 94L. I don't know if these are the same low, or of CMC is trying to build another low? NOGAPS is keeping the system on the atlantic side, Sending it north. My overall view of the global models is that they simply aren't able to define this system yet. There is so much divergence that it is still a wait and see system. The run-to-run consistancy of the GFDL and now the GFS also showing the same track gives the track along the northern gulf into Louisiana more credence, but it is still too early to tell. We first have to see if 94L even survives its trip over Florida. |