what does that title have to do with anything? well, tc 15 has just gone active today in the westpac as well. slow year over there.. not true over on this side of the big blue ball. it's very freaky for the atlantic to be pacing the busiest basin in the world.. which usually has 2 to 3 times more named systems than the atlantic at any given point in the year.
okay, the action:
maria does look sort of like a comet. it has a poleward outflow that's really going strong on the south side, getting dragged in a thousand-mile streak by an upper trough to the east. over the next few days maria should grow a new one extending up into a mid-latitude trough, and sweep cleanly out into the north atlantic.
td 15, future nate, is spinning up out of that mess between bermuda and puerto rico. it may be stronger than the nhc advisory says... will probably deepen more than indicated. i don't think the movement will be quite as pronounced to the west, probably more erratic. if it gets strong enough, it'll potentially fujiwhara-drag the system off florida out to sea.
94L is a classic pattern-induced system. all it really lacks is a cdo.. the pressure will only fall slowly in the area until deep convection forms and concentrates. there's a mini vortex in the low levels pushing in from the northeast... may act to focus the broad, elongated circulation near grand bahama/andros. for potential analogs... mediocre ones... i'll drag up dennis 1981 and jerry 1995. dennis came up out of the south, and got stuck near south florida for a few days in august 1981, before steering northeast/out to sea along the carolinas. if 94L develops enough it can work northward through the ridge... though i don't consider this scenario most likely. more likely it stays fairly weak and gets pushed onto the peninsula a-la jerry 1995. if it goes over land it'll stay weak.. maybe move out into the gulf.. maybe stay over land. factor in that future nate should be close enough to tug on it, and i'd expect a more erratic version of either of the above scenarios. the big threat should be lots of rain... unless something unexpected happens.
for other features.. it's worth noting that some of the models still see an impulse in the gulf that migrates over to texas. doesn't exist right now.. may be something the models are erroneously splitting off of 94L. all the same, eyeball any convection that develops and persists over the gulf.
92L, our old friend, is almost to the islands. it's still got a pronounced turning, just more of a wave than anything else. TWD says there's a low on it... maybe a trough max, not a vortex in the classic sense. no concentration of convection on the axis, still only marginal upper air conditions. storms rarely develop in the central caribbean.. and i don't see it pulling a fast one, so if it's going to do anything it'll probably be further west in a few days, where the flow slows and the upper conditions are forecasted fair.
very strong wave with an associated low passing by the cape verdes. there's enough subsidence to keep it tame for now. as it works further west the waters will get progressively warmer and the air will moisten, so it's really just a matter of maintaining an envelope for a few days, and not getting to close to a shearing trough.
and that's it. no mas. can't fit anything else into the atlantic.
HF 2137z05september