looks like 15 has been upgraded to nate. no advisory yet...
HF 0301z06september

thought i'd add some other observations...
think the feature near the bahamas may end up with a serpentine sort of track... to the coast, back offshore, then back to the coast.. as it interacts with nate and is potentially dragged by the shortwave progged to get nate.. and then pushed back to the coast as ridging rebuilds. for some reason that track scenario is standing out to me. do think this system... 94L... will be pesky.
looking at the height anomalies the ensembles are showing a few days out... looks like a mean ridge position over the eastern u.s. migrating slowly eastward. nao is positive right now, which favors zonal ridging. the anomaly pattern actually looks sort of like what we had with dennis back in july, only shifted westward. for that reason.. think that for the next two weeks the western gulf coast.. texas in particular.. will be threatened if anything develops in the caribbean. this teleconnects fairly well with the tracks of typhoons in the westpac at this time. on the flip side.. based on the forecast migration of the height anomalies.. the east coast may be in the threat zone late in the month, if the pattern progression follows from there.
HF 0332z06september