emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 06 2005 09:27 AM
Re: TD 16 FORMS!

This is the latest from the HPC.

Can someone put it into english for me. It mentions going with the NOGAPS, however, the ony NG I can find has it going east. HPC says it will go west.

NO MATTER FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST WL FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD
EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP CYC MOTION...
USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...SO THE MANUAL PROGS
HAVE REVERTED BACK TO OUR COORDINATED POINTS FROM YESTERDAY AT
16Z. THE CAN/UKMET/NCEP ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL
RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN
THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS ARE CLOSEST TO THE 05/12Z GFS
AND MOST RECENT NOGAPS... WHICH NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP
CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.