emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 06 2005 01:27 PM
Re: TD 16 FORMS!

This is the latest from the HPC.

Can someone put it into english for me. It mentions going with the NOGAPS, however, the ony NG I can find has it going east. HPC says it will go west.

NO MATTER FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST WL FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD
EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP CYC MOTION...
USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...SO THE MANUAL PROGS
HAVE REVERTED BACK TO OUR COORDINATED POINTS FROM YESTERDAY AT
16Z. THE CAN/UKMET/NCEP ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL
RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN
THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS ARE CLOSEST TO THE 05/12Z GFS
AND MOST RECENT NOGAPS... WHICH NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP
CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center