emackl, if I may decode please. Yesterdays HPC graphics had the system off the SE FL coast heading due west along the southern tip of the peninsula (similar to Katrina) - largely based on the Euro model (ECMWF) - thus the discussion this morning regarding the westward bias. See the animation below for the latest track from HPC - they indicated they have coordinated with the NHC on future movement so when the 11AM comes out naming this system TD16, this will likely be the projected track for the next 5 days. Looks like they compromised between the GFS and NOGAPs for the early period and then went with a pure GFS or GFDL track into the GOM for the later period.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html