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I think its a fairly safe bet to say that short term motion of TD16 will be unsure and erratic, especially as it is still in the formative stages. Intensity will also be closely links to the track the cyclone takes. If it follows the NHC current forecast tracks, or possibly goes a little to the right of it, then we could quite posibly see this become a Hurricane. However, of course, it it goes to the left of the forecast track the likelihood of seeing it become a hurricane is much decreased. Interaction with land could also hinder development. However, with favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, i think we will see this TD upgraded to Ophelia later today or tonight, and see a continued strengthening trend right up until landfall somewhere over the northeastern coast of Florida. |