alright. getting our o-storm probably on september 6th/7th. that's nuts, in case anyone is wondering.
forecast track makes some sense... more sense than the earlier progs across the state. deeper nate to the east may tug it, stronger beta advection due to a stronger system should keep it from whisking across florida. other things will dictate when/how it makes landfall. at some point the storm will be close enough to the coast that the asymmetric windfield should start to wobble it onshore.... probably up near the northern coast of florida. probably be around low-end hurricane strength at the time. the ridge to the north is forecast to break down, but there won't be a sharp shortwave to capture it, just a flat based trough sliding by to the north around the weekend. at this point shear may decouple the storm and a piece will jet westward, or it may just drift east and offshore. heights are supposed to rise in the wake, so ophelia may end up doing a loop and double landfall. due to the nature of the ridge breakdown and resurgence on the models, i'd expect that more than a sharp recurvature. whether it can regenerate offshore would be another issue altogether.. probably just stay steady-state. regardless i'm thinking this storm will be around all week, all weekend, into next week. probably tons or rain between say vero and brunswick ga.
nate may get a little stronger than progged... and the forecast track is very close to bermuda. they may take their hardest lick since fabian in 2003. doesn't look like nate will bother anyone else.
maria is weakening and on the way out... 48-72 hrs or so it should be losing tropical characteristics.
two waves at low latitudes worth mention.. one nearing 35w, the other is old 92L near 62w. the 35w wave has a large envelope and broad surface low, with scattered convection. it's already feeling southerly shear ahead of the large trough near 50w. this trough should be splitting at some point... so there's a chance enough of a feature will make it through to develop something, but looking improbable at this point. old 92L still has a broad turning near 16/63, but has only spotty convection and is in a dry environment.. some of its energy is propagating northward in maria/nate's direction. whatever is left in the western caribbean will be worth watching late in the week, but not a lot should make it.
the gulf is the last place to eyeball. the upper trough/low over the central gulf is diving sw and should induce some ridging aloft over the surface trough it has already generated from the boc up to the central part. some of the globals are showing a weak surface feature in this area... dependent on how concentrated convection remains, it may be trying to stew up as it migrates generally towards texas by the end of the week.
three active systems. not a lot of space to fit others, so the other mentions are low-end prospects.
HF 1743z06september