Well guys, here are my thoughts on our three systems today:

Maria - weakening now due to the hostile shear conditions now moving in from the west. Should be a TS by the 0300z advisory package i would have thought, but it may hold out for a further 6 hours. Interesting how the models keep it as a strong ET system out to 120 hrs. Certainly something i will be watching closely from this side of the pond!

Nate - Visible imagery shows Nate is very well organised. In fact there could well be a CDO feature now developing within the convective cloud shield. This would indicate that it is still strengthening, and will most likely become a Hurricane within the next 12 hours. Not alot of movement for the past 24 hours, and not really much motion expected for the next 24 hours. However, if i was in Bermuda right now i would be making my plans for an impact from Nate likely Thursday night - and likely to be a Hurricane.

TD 16 - seems to be struggling a bit looking at the visible imagery. however, recon found a closed circulation and reasonable wind field. Shear is the probelm at the moment, with the circulation centre located on the extreme southern edge of the convective activity. I dont think we will see much change overnight, and then possibly some slow strengthening on Wednesday. Given the organisation of the depression any motion will likely be erratic for at least the next 12 to 18 hours. However, after that a general north-northwest track should occur. This could be a very wet storm for parts of central and north Florida, and for Georgia too. Still too many uncertainties with this one at the moment though.

Regards