Nate's up to 3.5 Dvorak rating from SSD. That's barely under hurricane strength. I'd expect it to stay a TS tonight and strengthen to a Hurricane by morning. GFDL is bringing him to a Category 3 within 3-4 days. That might be excessive...but then look at what Maria did. At least he looks like he'll stay out to sea.

As for 94L, it's Dvorak is also up, from 2.0 to 2.5. It's getting close to TS if it isn't already. We're not going to get another recon tonight so I doubt they will upgrade her to Ophelia yet. I don't trust any model that dissapates this system...so the GFDL track is out in my mind. It did the same thing with Katrina at times...dissipated her...and look what she did. I'm more inclined to go with the global models...CMC...GFS...NOGAPS...which all take 16 north along the coast and slowly strengthen her, bringing her into land somewhere between mid-Florida and the Outer Banks. Unfortunately the global models aren't good for intensity, and I've noticed that SHIPS has been running weak on intensity this year. My "guess" is that we'll have a Cat 1 hurricane out of Ophelia...but nothing more. Let's see how the models change now that we have a TD rather than a blob.

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Weatherwatcher: GFDL is taking 16 SW then W, dissipating her before she reaches the coast of FL. Take a look at the "Late" products here for GFDL track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ -- I don't know what's up with PSU's and FSU's TCGenisis sites...they seem to be broken a lot of the time this season.

--RC