After a dismall forecast and my 2nd error this season, Ill try to rebound. So far its moving faster then the models and the NHC have forecasted but I posted that would happen on another site. Remember the models overdid the weakness with Katrina and moved her over florida 1 day ahead of schedule when she was still a TS. Currently again TD16 is moving faster then they anticipated or is it? Well its not really,, its just relocating its vortex center on the southern edge of the blow up of storms. Ridging over Nate has forced that N movement....outside of him there would been nothing to move TD16. Anyways here is what should happen. TD 16 is getting sheared moreso then the models have shown due to what I said above, this should keep it somewhat disorganized for the next 12 hours. Later today ( Weds) she should make TS status. A general movement bend to the NW should happen as Nate gets pushed N and NE away from TD16 by a trough to its NW. As the trough digs down Thurs into Friday, expect a slow movement to the ENE then E near 30N for the tropical storm. Since she will be on the southern extent of the trough, expect her to be left behind as the trough moves most of its energy to the NE. Heights will rise along the east coast of the U.S. by this weekend and should steer the Tropical Storm back at first towards the wsw then w between Melbourne and Daytona over the weekend. She should become a hurricane by this weekend and could be a decent 1. After this weekend its too hard and far out to forecast. Florida- the Carolinas will probably have a landfall. Not too sure about a trough coming down off the eastern U.S. next week until Weds-Thurs but how strong and far S is the key.