| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:46 AM |
Re: Quick hit thoughts
|
Quote:
\
GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that GFDL isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with Katrina - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the GFDL just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.
CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the GFDL solution.
Which model ended up "handling" Katrina the best? I didn't pay attention to that. Since Ophelia is north of Katrina's wake but in the same general area, the same model might be the one to favor... As long as it isn't GFDL or BAMM!
Update: It's just me I'm sure but I can almost imagine a right turn on the short and long ranger radar. Probably just the angle of the radar.