emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 07 2005 09:00 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast

Quote:

Even though most models have it going out to sea, there are a couple that take it into the Gulf? Why the difference?



According to the NHC it has to do with the ridging in the north.

SUGGESTS THAT THE
GFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA.

However, the only models runs I can find only 2 send her out to sea. The rest either put her across Florida or doing a loop and coming back towards the coast. None show it far enough in the future to see wether or not it actually hits the coast though.


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