A number of things, the sterring currents aloft, the high pressure system to the north, with a divergence between the two systems could and I say could produce a system that gets kick out into the gulf. There were so many differences in tracks into Katrina, GFDL showed a more SW movement than any other models, that eventually came across FLA and into the lower keys, then out into the gulf. It's a guessing game right now, but I think forecastors are more perplexed more than ever, are cautiously watching this like a hawk.
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast