the loop scenario from the other day is what's in play, i guess. most of the models have shifted that way and the nhc has a forecast track suggestive of it. doesn't look like ophelia will go onshore.. could get close to the st augustine area tomorrow... but during the weekend it should slide eastward on the base of a flat trough. ridge builds in over the top and should force an anticyclonic loop... and push the storm back to the coast next week. no idea what it'll look like then.. best bet is a low-end hurricane, based on climo. 'captured' storms of recent years include dennis in 1999 and jeanne in 2004... those probably illustrate the range of possibilities best. storm shouldn't have made its loop back until around the middle of next week, so plenty of time to watch it in the meanwhile.
nate will clip bermuda late tomorrow-early friday, maria is heading out.. none of the waves are looking particularly troublesome. the gulf feature isn't developing.. or at least should be onshore before it can do anything. models not showing a lot of activity, but continue tracking the 65w and 40w waves.. as well as the new emerging wave on the african coast.
HF 1348z07september