The models that take Ophelia north and then out to sea do that because they are biased in weakening the ridge too much. The northern motion of Ophelia the past 24 hours has been a result of the center reforming to the north. (there were two circulation centers yesterday). Now that they've merged a track to the west or west-southwest should begin. Latest satellite loops suggest this is already taking place. Ophelia will make landfall late tomorrow near Cape Carnaveral as a Category 1 hurricane. After weakening Ophelia will enter the Gulf and may threaten the Central Gulf coast.

Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html