native
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 07 2005 03:32 PM
!

Um...in a word...NO! (in response to Force's question about anyone buying into it)

RC & Force - I hope your worst fears are just that...fears and not reality.

Time will tell...right now she's basically meandering out there so she's tricky to track/forecast/predict right now. I know NHC as well as others must be throwing their hands in air and rolling their eyes on this one. I for one am scratching my head. I do think however that she's getting her act together a touch quicker than originally anticipated.

My best guess (emphasis on guess) is this:

1.) She will be a hurricane come the end of the weekend. I'll stab at borderline CAT 1/2. (Conditions (at least for now, support this)

2.) I do not think she'll make it further north than 31/32N nor will she go east much past 75W before coming around again. (With lack of any real steering currents to speak of, I just don't see her getting that much further north before being forced eastward)

3.) I think if/when she makes it back around it'll be south of the Space Coast. (This ofcourse will depend upon that ridge...how strong, how south & east, etc.)

NewWatcher - I couldn't agree more....I'd gladly take one on chin from her now to prevent the threat she'll pose later.



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