I hope so too. I don't want this thing getting strong.

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Thunderbird - I just saw that. GFDL Nate on PSU is showing Ophelia instead...while Ophelia is blank. I wish PSU would fix this problem

. I find it hard to see how Ophelia will strengthen while overland like the GFDL is forcasting.

Rabbit - GFS is also looping the system. With three global models doing it...and all three reliable models...I think the looping is likely. The question is:

- How close to shore will it be when the looping starts?
- How far south with the looping push it?
- How will the ridge effect the system's strength?

If the system is nearer shore when the looping starts, interaction with shore will weaken the system.

If the system is pushed less southward during the loop (the ridge weakens or doesn't move as fast to the south as GFS is showing), than it will be over land for an extended period of time, probably enough to dissipate it.

If the ridge brings shear over the storm, it doesn't matter how strong Ophelia is, it will weaken. That is what the NHC is thinking now. With a weakening, sheared storm hitting land, the system could mostly dissipate before reaching the gulf.

Let us hope that any one of these cases is true...and Ophelia never makes it to the GoM.