I'm waiting for the 12Z GFDL (about 4 hours away...plus however long it takes to get published...). It should be much more accurate for this storm. I believe the AVN model that the GFDL uses as a spawn this time will be the first AVN run seeded after Ophelia became a TS. This will make the GFDL more reliable.

As for a southward jog...don't count it out. This thing is moving so slowly it could go any direction.

As for Melbourne radar, it is starting to form the eastern edge of a central circulation now. This thing looks stronger than a TS on radar. It looks to be trying to form an eye. That normally isn't seen until strong cat 2. I don't think it is anywhere near that strong, but it says to me that the storm is more organized than we thought.

--RC