scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 07 2005 04:45 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast

The Force......plz give out reasons why you feel Ophelia will do what you think. For 1 its not going to be a hurricane very soon, also Katrina was forecasted to move that SW direction,,,they just didnt know where it would turn that way to cross florida. We all like to hear what others think but we need reasons, links to models that show it, WaterVapor ideas seeing where it will go that way, etc....
This is actually for anyone as we dont need to to alarm people after what katrina did. Many are really scared. For now most models agree Ophelia will be a slow mover. Most 12z want to take her out to sea then curve her back somewhat near 75W and 31N by the weekend. Right now it looks like in the near term she will move closer to Daytona giving them gusty TS force winds. She will move closer due to the ridge over Nate moving away and ridging to her NNE ahead of the trough over the great lakes region. She should then be push by this trough away from Florida but we are not sure of this as of yet. The troughs energy should be taken NE by the weekend ( via most global models) as ridging builds in off the east coast early next week. If she is around 75W by Saturday still then she will probably feel this ridge and move back towards the states from Florida-Carolinas. For the near term its a wait and see.



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