I'm not discounting the accuweather idea.

Looking at the water vapor loop, there is a ridge that is from the Atlantic Ocean to Texas. It starts curving NE just north and east of where Ophelia is located.

The NHC and the models called for a drift in a north direction (NNW, NW, NE, NNE have been mentioned at one time or another) However, the storm has not drifted north at all. In fact, it is SW of it's position (barely) of 24 hrs ago.

Unless it starts drifting or moving north, at least 75-100 miles north, it will miss the push to the NE and then will be pushed into FLorida. And this morning, it looks to be drifting in a southerly direction.

I'm not an expert, but just my thoughts. I would agree with Accuweather on this one.