Ricreig
(User)
Thu Sep 08 2005 12:08 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty

With tropical weather, no one in their right mind will totally discount any possibility and given the proximity of the storm to the east coast, it is prudent to make plans for the worst case scenerio. However, one also needs to plan for what is most likely. The closeness of the storm to the coast amplifies all of the effects of even small wobbles so it is likely that East Central Florida *will* see significant effects from Ophilia. I just don't feel the Accuweather solution is very llikely, not impossible, just unlikely. More likely is continued wobbles alternately bringing the center close to shore and then away from shore and covering N and S movement as well. Overall, the track will probably tend N over the next day or so, with wobbles back to the SW, SE, NE adnausium. For the sake of those in the gulf area, I hope this is the solution, not the one proposed by Accuweather..


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