What can any of us say about these forcast tracs? Nothing unless we know the science that goes into those models, and I certainly don't.
But I do know that the WV suggests the ridge is pushing hard toward the SE coast, and that coupled with the relative weakness of the system will not allow for much movement, more or less northward movement..
As for the storm's appearance...it is not able to grab much energy producing moisture from its SE quardrant as these things want to do as there is none there..it has to pull what it has in from the SW over the GOM, and that is inhibited by that large ULL...so I don't see much increase in intensity today, although some convective pockets are showing up on the visible.
It is possible if the storm does not ramp up a bit it could actually be pushed south a bit by what I see in the ridge pushing down to the SE today...that of course is very unscientific speculation...but we'll see I guess!