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Only possible problem is that most of the models have this looping back to the west as the ridge builds over and doesn't allow her to escape. UKMET and NOGAPS support this idea, and the longer she sits, the more time is running out for her to escape. HPC builds the ridge on the east coast through day 7, which is a bit disturbing. She is intensifying again, and for her to get out to sea she needs to get beyond 32N/75W by Friday night. Don't see this happening. Again, this is taking the idea of the evolving upper level pattern, and where the Globals put her in 48 hours. I don't believe they will verify with their north and east positions, so she'll have not far west to go before threatening the coastline. Just my opinion though, not a forecast per se. |