645pm EDT Thursday September 8, 2005

Based on GFS, upper air analysis and satellite derived winds.

Latest advisories on Hurricane Ophelia are being issued by the NHC in Miami.

I had the chance to look at the satellite derived winds aloft water vapor loop from the SSEC web site..the 100-250mb and 500mb winds. They are of big interest to me in order to verify that a pure Northeast motion would start on Ophelia. The winds aloft at 500mb also the 400-600mb winds too! at about 35 north is westerly. Hurricane Ophelia seems to be hooked into the 100-250mb level while a dry southern dry boundary on water vapor loop streaches across the 30 north latitude basing on the water vapor wind derived satellite products. The issue here is whether Ophelia does go Northeast or will it go more easterly. In this situation it is critical to see what the wind flow is aloft to the north of Ophelia namely about the 35 north latitude. Using the known case studies made from the old Eastern Airlines (disbanded old aviation weather forecast team) weather textbook that I use for these critical and almost difficult situations, "Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics" By J. J. George in the tropical movement of cyclones and using the 500mb as guidance with this situation would basically take Ophelia by extrapolation more East-northeast if there was a motion than just Northeast. If this is the case then we need to be more concerned then a pure northeast motion. Any weather numerical model that takes this East-Northeast to East such as Jeanne of last year when it was out in the Atlantic would be a problem since the loop forecast that is expected would loop it back to Florida instead of farther up the U.S. coast.

There is no defined controlling feature such in this case and with a frontal dry boundary north of it aligned west to east. Since now the fall like westerlies at mid to upper levels has already taken place. A Westerly flow a little farther north in Latitude is not the same as a fully developed trough that would provide a more southwest flow and being or being captured by a more pronounced deeper trough. The trough in my expert opinion that officially was talked about is not going to be enough to take it all the way out far enough to the northeast. The situation as I see it is that Ophelia will be moving more with a more due east of northeast track then just Northeast as the GFS has it. Any models again that take it a more flatter east motion or ENE is my pick and I would throw out any models that take it Northeast as I see it now.. The westerly flow is over a large predominant area in the northern latitudes especially looking at about 5-7 degrees to the north of Ophelia's latitude.

I do not know whether the data I looked at here at 1800z or 2pm has initialzed well enough for the GFS to move in the direction I feel it SHOULD do.. I think the official forecast for a more East Norteast slow motion is a fairly good one and the loop will more likely take place farther south in latitude then the GFS has it or any model for that matter.

So there you have it...also if Ophelia stays stationary for a longer period the likelihood that it would be pushed farther east northeast is less so or at least be a shorter distance to the Florida east coast. This needs to be watched very carefully..it is ironic but it seems that this is somewhat a similar situation as Jeanne of last year..this time much closer to the east coast of florida... all interests need to keep watch all along the East coast of Florida for the next 2 to 3 days and see how it moves...if it moves the way I think it will it is not that good for us..if it should move more northeast it is a little better as long as it goes far enough northeast when it loops it will remain somewhat hooked into the westerlies at mid to upper levels that when it loops it will loop and even if a southwest motion will come back and loop it will be farther up the the U.S. coast like Georgia or the Carolinas! We shall see.. I hope with my technical expertise that everyone understands the seriousness of this situation..Ophelia is not something to lay back but at least we are better prepared in the event it loops back to us.

GFS extrapolation of the winds aloft.....Outlook 72 to 120 hrs... Another very strong reinforcing high will build and impinge down on Ophelia keeping from going too far north in latitude early next week 72hrs or so...also the mean layer of the atmosphere will favor a push to the south to southwest beyond the 72hr period..and that certainly could be a problem for all of Eastern Florida...we will wait and see and pray...that there is a feature that will take it well away from us into the far atlantic...but now the fact is....it hasn't moved much at all all day through 5pm.!

Bottom Line............
The closer it stays to our coast the next 24-48hrs as the pattern transitions to the north the greater chance that Florida will be effected or be threatened or for that matter be battered by this cyclone over a longggggg time into next week!...I hope my discussion helps any official forecasters or any others on standby for emergency response....that are watching this storm carefully...!!!