maria heading out, nate following suit... by the end of the weekend we should be down to just ophelia in the basin. looks like the crawling ne motion has finally begun. track should be more or less in that general direction for the next couple of days, perhaps a little faster at times. i don't think the intensity will change a whole lot until it stalls again around sunday/monday. at that time, should be at roughly 30/76. forecast track i have in mind is more or less the official, just more exaggerated to the west at the end of the forecast period. whether the storm tracks back over upwelled waters should determine the end intensity... if it goes back to the east coast of florida it probably won't be very strong... ga or sc it might be a bit stronger. it'll probably come back to the coast between tuesday and thursday next week in the cat 1- cat 3 range. clark has it pegged as a cat 2 already and the philosophy looks good to that.
nothing doing elsewhere in the basin. mjo has reactivated and has become strongly inhibiting in the western hemisphere. mjo has been out of phase for most of the season... and it should keep the deep tropics quiet for much of this month if it persists like it is. with the strong highs and pattern-pulse near the eastern u.s. in play already that may dictate much of the remaining activity this month. enhancing mjo may get back around october and liven things back up.. but the rest of september may be a good deal quieter than the last couple of weeks.
HF 0303z09september