Bill, it's the GFDL that has been making Ophelia a major hurricane in the last few runs, though it weakens the system from its peak intensity before bringing it onshore. The SHIPS model has consistently been capping the intensity at cat 1. I believe the official forecast brings the system to 75 knots before landfall, with the usual error bar on either side of that estimate.

The 12Z GFS brings the system into the NC outer banks from the south in about 120 hours. While the GFS has had a tendency to be further north and east than the other models with Ophelia, people in North Carolina should obviously keep an eye on this system as well. Tropcial systems have a way of finding themselves there, it seems.