I have just discovered this site. Great place. However there tends to be too much speculation on what will happen and rarely has any of the speculation come to fruitation. The simplest answer, and the one the NHC puts out but alot tend to ignore, is there is alot of uncertainty, hence the "margin of error or uncertainty". Sometimes things are easier to define , but sometimes they are not. The more we know about something often results in more questions then answers.
In this case, even for the experts, there were , and still are more questions then definable answers.
All I can suggest to everyone in the cone is to be prepared. I am in that cone, and I do not take it litely, nor do I take the word of "any" forcaster as the word of god. Things change, even as far in as a few hours. This is a fundamental nature of life. I could walk across the street and get hit by a car. No one can predict that with a definative answer. Just be prepared if your in the cone. It is frustrating, however we have no control over that, so it is often best to just check up every few hours and do not become plowed to the screen and worry yourself to death. Just keep an eye on things and be prepared. I make my family prepare and plan way before, that way if the worst case scenerio seems about to happen in our area, we are ready to go. No last minute rush.