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Interesting tidbit from the HPC today: OPHELIA REMAINS A BIG QUESTION MARK... W/TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ACRS QUEBEC SLIGHTLY FAVORING A NEGATIVE ANOMALY NR THE BAHAMAS...IMPLYING THERE IS A CHANCE OPHELIA COULD CONTINUE TO LINGER/LOOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST OR MID ATL SIMILAR TO DAWN /1972/...DORIA /1967/...AND GINNY /1963/. THIS IDEA IS SHOWN VIVIDLY IN THE 18Z NCEP ENSMEAN...AND TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 00Z NCEP ENSMEAN. FOLLOWED TPC GUIDANCE...AS ALWAYS...BUT IT IS PSBL THAT THE LANDFALL/IMPACTS UPON THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST COULD BE DELAYED FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN AND VERY POSSIBLY MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS ALL LATEST MODELS...12Z GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET AND ECMWF TAKE AIM AT ERN NC BY DAY 4 WED WITH GFDL ALSO SHOWING A STRONG SHIFT NWD... SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND WARNINGS. And Conversely very much south as well with the height anomalies. |