Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 10 2005 07:17 PM
Re: down to ophelia

Interesting tidbit from the HPC today:


OPHELIA REMAINS A BIG QUESTION MARK... W/TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE
POSITIVE ANOMALY ACRS QUEBEC SLIGHTLY FAVORING A NEGATIVE ANOMALY
NR THE BAHAMAS...IMPLYING THERE IS A CHANCE OPHELIA COULD CONTINUE
TO LINGER/LOOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST OR MID ATL SIMILAR TO DAWN
/1972/...DORIA /1967/...AND GINNY /1963/. THIS IDEA IS SHOWN
VIVIDLY IN THE 18Z NCEP ENSMEAN...AND TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 00Z
NCEP ENSMEAN. FOLLOWED TPC GUIDANCE...AS ALWAYS...BUT IT IS PSBL
THAT THE LANDFALL/IMPACTS UPON THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST COULD BE
DELAYED FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN AND VERY POSSIBLY MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS ALL LATEST MODELS...12Z GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET
AND ECMWF TAKE AIM AT ERN NC BY DAY 4 WED WITH GFDL ALSO SHOWING A
STRONG SHIFT NWD... SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND WARNINGS.

And Conversely very much south as well with the height anomalies.



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