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While its true that the ridge to the north of Ophelia is a lot stronger than the ridge to her south and west, a low pressure system north of Maine is expected to move eastward into the Atlantic and create a weakness in the ridge to her north. This would allow Ophelia to move north and eventually northeast as the strong westerlies currently to the north of the storm begin to relax. The high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes to Alabama (and even north Florida) is not moving much at all, but it presents quite a block against any significant westward movement. Ophelia is still 'stuck' in place as it has been all weekend. While there has been some jogs to the north and to the east, there really hasn't been any definitive movement for a couple of days. The warnings and watches issued by NHC seem to be a worthwhile precaution given the uncertainty of her future track. Ophelia certainly has a track record of some weakening and stalling in the evening followed by rebuilding and short movements in the morning. Until the overall weather pattern changes, her movement is still a 'best guess'. Cheers, ED |