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It appears the GFDL and GFS have both stayed with their more south and west tracks for two straight runs. The 18Z just came out. Does anyone believe the NHC may adjust at 11pm? I believe they have relied on the GFDL moreso this year than last. I could be wrong though.
They try not to make major adjustments to the forecast track because models can wobble... but the NHC forecast from 5pm is now well east of the model consensus, so they may adjust if the trend continues - or they may forecast a stalling again because the models are spread out again. GFDL has been effective for some storms, but I don't think Ophelia is one of them.
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Re: Ophelia's Movement