upper high to the northwest, upper high to the southeast, ophelia in the middle. earlier on i was thinking that the high over the continent would win out, but the upper westerlies haven't abated enough to let the storm slide westward. if ophelia was shallower it would have already run towards ga or sc, but in spite of upwelling and subsidence entrainment the storm is maintaining a sub 980mb central pressure. ophelia is neither here nor there, though... so neither flow mechanism is moving the storm much.. and the highs are cancelling one another, too. if ophelia weakens some it might run further west, but after taking the bait the other day and pegging the sc coast, the storm has remained stuck and will probably bust me. the eastern part of north carolina, which as-of-late gets almost all of the action on the east coast, has the greatest chance of being affected climatologically and realistically, as ophelia is remaining stalled and steady-state.
HF 1401z12september