Yikes: Let me try and explain as best I understand

- a met or HF would be much better, but lacking them, I might be able to get it right

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

The high pressure over the eastern US is eroding and moving slowly east. As it does this it opens a potential westward movement path. It's still at least a day off before Ophelia's likely to move, and if you look at the model tracks, it isn't until midweek (late tues, wed, or early thurs) that landfall would occur...if it ever occurs...or if it occurs anywhere near the time or space the models indicate.

The real question is what happens with the high over the Atlantic. Earlier this week it was forcast to stay where it was, possibly strengthen, and thus as the high over the US weakened the one over the atlantic would push Ophelia toward land.

That has changed. The Atlantic high has drifed east and weakened slightly, moving the forcing for Ophelia further out to sea. The result is that as the high over the US weakens and moves east Ophelia might not track west as was expected earlier this week. That's why the models are now predicting a more northward movement...however, it could be just as possible to stall or have a southward movement...ie NOGAPS and CMC solutions respectively.