| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 08:41 AM |
|
Re: 00z models
|
J.C. - refering back to my first post this morning:
Quote:
Ok, I'm giving a quick paraphrase of the 2nd paragraph of the 5am discussion from NHC: "We have no clue where she's going, and the models aren't helping."
Anything's possible. Anything. What is the chance of 1 in a billion possible tracks?
It's fine to look at the steering layers and say "this might happen" or "this is probably what the models are picking up" or "this ridge is keeping her from going east" but the fact is we don't know. We have a few limiters, such as the storm can't move far east becuase of that Atlantic ridge. But that's about the only limiting factor we have in the long term. There is no forcing of the storm any direction. There is no "only one route" method. As a result it could go anywhere. The model tracks are still all over the place.