| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:28 AM |
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Quote:
Looks like the new core just wrapped itself around. Let's see if the convection wraps around that. Just read Bastardi's update. He still believes this gets up to a 90kt storm!! I find that hard to fathom. However I give him credit because he sticks to his guns.
That's certainly a bold forecast, but I find it a bit more believable now than I would have 12 hours ago -- Ophelia continues to get better organized, with WIlmington NEXRAD showing a patch of 64+kt knot winds northeast of the center, and an expanding area of 50-60kt winds west of the center -- about 10 kt stronger than when recon penetrated from the west a little while ago. I have a hunch they'll find something a bit stronger next time around. The radius of maximum wind is still quite large, but if the current trend continues, it will probably contract as we go through the day. With at least another 24 hours over water and SSTs generally 80 to 82 along the path, some intensification above the 65kt currently forecast by NHC is certainly possible.
Will