Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 13 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas

Considering the cooled waters (both due to storm-induced and physically-induced upwelling), poor inner-core organization of the storm, and proximity to land -- among other factors -- I think a call of a 90kt storm at landfall is, quite frankly, unrealistic. It may organize a bit more than forecast, but that's by 5kt and not 30kt. We've seen storms with impressive satellite signatures actually be quite a bit weaker than they are in reality this season, including this one throughout its lifecycle -- something Bastardi hasn't picked up on all season long despite recon & surface obs to the contrary -- and given what the current state of the storm is, it's going to take a lot for the surface representation of the storm to match any improved satellite appearance. It doesn't have the time, the environment, or the state of organization to do so. That is in no way to say that people in SC/NC shouldn't be prepared for a hurricane -- we've been harping on that possibility for days now -- but to think that something intensifying to major hurricane status will affect the region is just beyond reason right now.


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