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I think that 95L could spin up pretty quickly even with the shear Mainly cause a anticyclone is over it (NHC). Here are reasons why. Accuweather "A tropical wave along 37 west south of 17 north is showing some signs of organization. During late Tuesday and Tuesday evening satellite images were starting to show an organized lower level circulation in the cloud motion. Some computer models are suggesting this wave might slowly organize into a tropical system in a couple of days. So, this wave will be closely monitored for possible development." NHC "EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS STILL LOW LATITUDE BUT HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW REGIME. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 36W-40W." " AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEAR 13N35W AND IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY DECENT ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W." |