Cycloneye11
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 15 2005 07:22 AM
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE LOCAL REGION IS A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. EXAMINATION OF THE PAST 7-10 DAYS OF DATA SUGGESTS TO ME
THAT THERE ARE TWO VORT CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER...ONE A PIECE OF AN AEW AT 47.5W THAT WAS SEVERELY STRETCHED
THEN SPLIT AS IT EXITED AFRICA...AND REMAINS LINKED TO THE TROF AT
56 WEST...AND THEN NEXT A LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45-46. CIMSS
LLVL VORT FIELDS AND RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER GRADUAL
ORGANIZATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TWO
LLVL VORTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MERGE OR CONGEAL BEFORE THIS OCCURS.
NHC COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN AN
EVENTUAL NW AND WNW MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WITH PAST TWO GFDL
RUNS LIFTING STRONGLY N OR NNW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO
DEVIATE FROM A WLY MOTION. A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE SW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS N THRU NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD PROVIDE THE ENVIRONMENT TO MAKE THAT NW AND THEN NLY TURN IN
A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER WEST THIS SYSTEM MOVES...THE LATER
THE TURN. THAT BEING SAID...ALL INTERESTS IN THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.


The above is from the NWS discussion in San Juan related to 95L.I am a little worried about this system affecting the islands because of it's low latitud it is located.Let's see what will occur in the next few days.



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