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THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE LOCAL REGION IS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ. EXAMINATION OF THE PAST 7-10 DAYS OF DATA SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THERE ARE TWO VORT CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ONE A PIECE OF AN AEW AT 47.5W THAT WAS SEVERELY STRETCHED THEN SPLIT AS IT EXITED AFRICA...AND REMAINS LINKED TO THE TROF AT 56 WEST...AND THEN NEXT A LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45-46. CIMSS LLVL VORT FIELDS AND RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER GRADUAL ORGANIZATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TWO LLVL VORTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MERGE OR CONGEAL BEFORE THIS OCCURS. NHC COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN AN EVENTUAL NW AND WNW MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WITH PAST TWO GFDL RUNS LIFTING STRONGLY N OR NNW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVIATE FROM A WLY MOTION. A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE SW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS N THRU NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD PROVIDE THE ENVIRONMENT TO MAKE THAT NW AND THEN NLY TURN IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER WEST THIS SYSTEM MOVES...THE LATER THE TURN. THAT BEING SAID...ALL INTERESTS IN THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. The above is from the NWS discussion in San Juan related to 95L.I am a little worried about this system affecting the islands because of it's low latitud it is located.Let's see what will occur in the next few days. |