slightly worse on all fronts this morning, as i'm looking at things.
ophelia hasn't accelerated any ne because the mid-layer ridge to the east is holding. those scenarios where it tries to phase into the westerlies ahead of that oncoming shortwave are looking a little more likely. the ultimate track should be closer to cape cod, and potentially over nova scotia as the nhc official advertises. the longer it waits the more likely that it will move over the cape/nantucket, as well as the chances that it will be a baroclinically enhanced system. timetable for passage is back to saturday night.
95L has continued more to the west. it is moving slow and the synoptic pattern ahead suggests that it will start to gain latitude, but the globals as a group are taking it up to the east of the islands. the longer the system doesn't develop and continues pushing along 10w, the more likely that it won't dodge. several of the dynamic models are also taking a weaker system westward into the caribbean, which would have a different set of implications in the long term (i.e., the system doesn't lift through the persistent weakness forecasted in the central atlantic near bermuda). surely the models lifting the system immediately nw and never letting it past 55w look suspect... i doubt the islands will get off that easy. of note also is the cmc, which has a very powerful hurricane on its 00z run.
a slight complication is the fact that 95L is at nearly 47w, running on a well defined wave near 54w. the 54w wave is on pace to catch the feature stewing north of puerto rico. a small bulge on the upper trough holding the feature near puerto rico has dug ahead of it.. amplifying the shear over the low level turning but also amplifying the ridging east of there. the 54w wave may well catch the feature near 65w over the weekend and consolidate into a low.... as some models are suggesting will happen around sunday north of hispaniola. this feature should be slightly upstream of the upper weakness forecast to camp for 95L, and most models are taking it westward between cuba and florida and into the gulf. among the spread of possibilities is ukmet showing a tropical storm in the central gulf around the middle of next week, to gfs and nogaps having surface troughs in the area, to the euro and canadian mostly losing it. it is telling that the upper air pattern is forecasted very favorable for a tropical system to strengthen over the gulf next week.. if it gets over there it will likely be trouble. ridging near the nw gulf is forecasted to keep it moving westward until late next week, as it weakens and shifts eastward on the gfs in recent runs. if correct this would imply that any existing system would recurve in the western gulf. it's 8 days away or so, but there is reasonable consistency among the models about what a system might do, as opposed to whether it will actually be there. i'm thinking it may well.
weekend/next week likely to be active and interesting.
HF 1331z15september