Hello all...Thought I'd add my thoughts on the two new disturbances now that the Big O has finally starting to move out (did anyone else suffer storm fatigue for this system?)

Anyway, on to 95L - Looks better today, still some SW shear to the north but looks like that may be decreasing toward the west. Maybe a trop depression by tomorrow or Sunday. The track, I agree with HF, I don't see rapid intensification like I think the globals were picking up for the last 2 days, so I think a weaker system being guided by low-level flow conditions looks about right. In this case, I agree with the dynamic models (I can't say that very often) and climatology - that this system will move W-NW into the Carribean Sea somewhere south of Hispanola or PR in 3-5 days. Where it goes from there - I won't even speculate on this far out. The second blob of convection NE of PR looks to be enhanced by an ULL immediately to its west. If the ULL moves away or fills in the next two days, I think we'll have a depression. If it develops rapidly, say by 75W, then I think it gets pulled NW toward the weakness in the Atlantic Ridge left over from the Big O. However, all global models show the Ridge quickly rebuilding over the SE US by Monday or Tuesday, so it'll eventually get steered to the west. How quickly it strengthens will have big implications on its future track - more north and then west the faster it forms and perhaps a track west across S or Cent FL, more along a southern tragectory between the Keys and Cuba if it stays weaker. All in all, this storm could be a significant drought buster for west-central FL if it develops quickly.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif