Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 17 2005 02:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

I just checked the tracks and intensity forcasts over at http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

I don't like what I'm seeing...

TD 17 looks like it will stay in the atlantic, but 96L is more worrisome. GFD* models are showing it moving into the gulf with a slight WNW track just after it passes FL. The globals are keeping it more westerly.

But the tracks are less worrisome than the intensity models. For both 17 and 96, intensity models are showing possible major Hurricanes developing, with 96 possibly hitting 120kt (Cat 4) winds.

It's really still to early for models to have a good handle on either of these beasts, but what the models do show isn't pretty.


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