Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 17 2005 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Quote:

GFDL makes 96L a cat 5 hurricane by 96 hours, with the pressure bottoming out at 918.5 mb at 102 hours between the Keys and Cuba. That is the deepest system I can remember the GFDL ever generating, in my relatively limited experience looking at the model. If nothing else, that seems to suggest that conditions will be favorable for strengthening if a tropical cyclone can establish itself.

Timing will be important with this system... if it moves relatively quickly into the Gulf under the building ridge, it will probably tend to move W or WSW and affect Mexico rather than the U.S. Gulf Coast. If it moves as slowly as depicted in the GFDL, then a northerly turn would be more likely at some point.




Thunder... you're not trying to get on my good side, are you? Another Cat 5 hurricane headed for the north gulf coast? I've usually held the GFDL in high regard on its long-term projections - even if its short-term forecasts sometimes aren't as accurate, the longer-term seem to be to me. That's... frightening...

Of course, the system has yet to be classified even as a TD, and most models put it into Texas in the extreme long term. But we do not need another super storm - anywhere.



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