yeah, cmc did that a couple of days ago as well, to 17. remember that in the disco beven says that the globals don't initialize the storm well. the forecast is pretty low confidence, but probably not very far from the truth. the late period movement is iffy because even though most of the globals aren't as nuts about that trough staying put near bermuda, it's still going to be a factor. it's getting close to next weekend that they show the ridge rebridging, so it could already be through by then, or just hanging around waiting to get shunted westward. a wave actually overtook what is 17 last night, and it has a pretty good turning on it up near 20/56. this turning is chugging west behind 96L and entering the same favorable environment. they're all too close to expect it to develop, but the nearby systems should at least sense its weakness and get tugged by it... none of the globals are resolving any of that.
gfdl is the great vacillator... it will kill a system one run and make a cat 4 hurricane out of it the next. i wouldn't worry about its 96L prog just yet.. the movement wnw past the keys is suspect since there should be a huge ridge over the nw gulf (unless it senses that 500mb trough supposed to dig near the SE upstream from the ridge late in the week). right now 96L has a weak center near 22/68, which is drifting west. most of the convection is to the east, and it could actually lose out in the long-run to the oncoming wave if it were to take its sweet time. i don't think it will, though. should develop by tomorrow and threaten the bahamas monday-tuesday and possibly cuba and florida around wednesday. think it will continue westward in the gulf from there.
amplitude of the wave near 35w has increased a good bit.. mjo seems to be lighting its signature up. it's upstream of a couple of developing systems so the westerly shear over it should remain stronger.. but it's south of the ridge and in a reasonable environment.. so it could slowly organize over the next few days as well.
thing i keep wondering is where are we going to put all these damned storms. nao is positive which favors zonal ridging, so unless they can find weakness and escape, they'll want to come west.
HF 1530z17september