we have philippe active east of the islands, but progged to slowly move north/northwest towards the central atlantic. checks out well with the steering present. some of the globals aren't taking it much further west at all.. do expect some of that later in the period as the ridging becomes flatter and heights rise near the northeast u.s. coast. extended ensembles show ridging near the canadian maritimes, so philippe may be trapped under that or trying to get around it this time next week. right now bermuda looks like the likeliest destination, though.
different story for newly formed td 18. kind of stupid that it got the upgrade looking like it does after philippe looking better and getting ignored through two advisory cycles. the system is only slowly organizing and i think the hurricane watch for the nw bahamas is probably uncalled for. timetable i had earlier was off from what looks to be the case now.. system should pass by south florida on tuesday. official shows a hurricane around then, and that makes sense. a stronger storm will be further north, a weaker one closer to or over cuba. the maximum potential problem for florida with this thing is nothing compared to what mexico and texas will be facing around september 23rd/24th. most of the globals have the track near the yucatan and into ne mexico, but just barely... the track hooks nw as the ridge erodes and takes the core of the storm nw as it closes in on the coast. mix that solution with the further north nhc track right now and you have a recurving hurricane hitting texas at the end of next week... a mature one that has crossed the gulf. of course thats 6-7 days out and not trustworthy at this point.. but i'd be getting my rita contingency figured out and ready if i was on the texas coast this week.
wave nearing 40w has a very good signature. favor the southern end to try to do something (too much shear on the northern end). it's low-moderate potential at this point... probably not a threat to land if it can develop.
eastpac is going nuts. three active storms out there right now. if they keep developing, look for the atlantic to remain active. kenneth reaching major status is the first this season in that basin to do so. they've got quantity, but not quality. jova may get close enough to hawaii late next week to affect their weather. modest possibility, at least.
HF 0312z18september