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From Steve Gregory's Blog at Weather Underground: The model runs from this evening continue to show Phillipe moving on a NNW track -- but with the slowing forward motion -- we are again faced with increased uncertainty regarding the track. In either case, a steady intensification process is likely as the the water temps are very warm, and the shear environment should remain in the 10Kts or less category, with decreasing shears as time goes on. Although the models all show the system moving NNW for the next 4-5 days - missing the Caribbean, the longer range GFS shows the ridge to the north building across the Atlantic by mid week -- and this could turn the storm move westward late in the week. Interesting take on the long-term movement - I don't like the thought of the Ridge building in across the Atlantic after 4-5 days. |